Are the Nuggets Faltering?

The Denver Nuggets have had a weird offseason. Going into it there were high expectations as they had just made the Western Conference Finals, and despite losing in five, they held their own well against the future champs. They ended up doing surprisingly well in the draft, taking big man Zeke Nnaji and then trading future picks to get RJ Hampton who fell to the 24th pick, both were great moves. Nnaji should get some back up minutes at the four or five and Hampton is a bit of a question mark. But they were unable to keep Mason Plumlee or Jerami Grant, the latter of which could end up being very costly.

Starting off in the draft, the Nuggets had the 22nd pick which came via Houston in the Clint Capela trade that the Nuggets got in on. They took Arizona big man Zeke Nnaji, going right around where he should have. Nnaji is a good athlete and his energy and effort are clear in the way he plays as he has an extremely high motor. He uses that to get to the glass and grab rebounds at a high level. He showed an ability to stretch the floor with the pick and pop game he ran at Arizona. He didn’t shoot many threes in college but he has a smooth stroke that can be developed quickly. Additionally his post scoring is great due to his good footwork and inside touch. He needs to improve his shoot blocking and post defense but he won’t have to play big minutes right away. Denver then got in on the Jrue Holiday trade and picked up the Bucks pick which came from Indiana in the Malcolm Brogdon trade. They selected RJ Hampton here who chose to forgo college and play in the NBL. The former top recruit is a mixed bag as he does certain things well but also needs to improve in others. He passes out of the drive well and makes accurate cross court passes. His shooting isn’t great and his three ball needs to improve if he wants to be successful. Like many other young players he needs to improve his shot selection. He is super athletic and does have good size at 6’5 with a 6’7 wingspan, and has potential to play the one or two. He is great at drawing fouls and is willing to drive against larger defenders and earn his points at the line. Additionally, he cuts well, something that will be useful on a Nuggets team that passes extremely well. He will most likely be playing as the back up two guard minutes and could eventually slot into the starting lineup due to the injury and offensive problems Gary Harris has had in the past two seasons. They then picked up undrafted Marquette guard Markus Howard and signed him to a two-way deal. Howard was great in college but his size and usage rate won’t translate well in the league. This is an average move that most likely will have no real bearing on the Nuggets season.

In terms of retaining their own and signing new free agents, Denver didn’t do a great job in this department. They let Mason Plumlee walk in free agency as the Pistons offered him a massive three-year $25 million dollar contract. This wasn’t a bad decision to let him leave as Detroit overpaid, but non the less, he was one of the best backup centers in the league and it hurts to see him go as he was a fan favorite. There were times last year when Jokic was in foul trouble and he came in and played that exact role. He’s an extremely underrated passer and the Nuggets bench unit will certainly miss him. The loss of Jerami Grants hurts more for multiple reasons. For starters, the Nuggets offered the same three-year $60 million dollar contract the Pistons offered, yet he chose to go to Detroit instead of staying with a contender. In the playoffs he acted as the primary defender on opposing teams best wings and was easily the third best player for the Nuggets. Losing his defensive impact will certainly hurt the Nuggets as they also didn’t bring back Torey Craig. More on Craig, his departure is a bit more understandable but still hurts the team. His defense and energy were a big help to the Nuggets and it’s wonder they didn’t extend the qualifying offer to bring him back after Grant’s departure.

After Plumlee leaving for the Motor City, Bol Bol was given a full contact and should look to get more playing time this year in a backup role. They signed JaMychal Green to a good deal and he’ll provide nice defense and shooting off the bench but won’t replace losing Grant. They brought Paul Milsap back on a $10 million a year deal, which was a good move but not the home run they needed. Milsap took a backseat late last year but he’ll have to step up again as Green won’t overtake him like Grant did. They really scratched some heads when they signed Facundo Campazzo from Real Madrid. The 29 year old is regarded as one of the best passers in Europe and was playing for the best non-NBA team in the world. But unless the Nuggets plan to trade Monte Morris or let him walk in free agency next year, this signing is odd to say the least. Not to mention the fact no one has any idea on how good he’ll be in the NBA. As good as he may be in Europe, many players have struggled to make the transition. They also picked up Isaiah Hartenstein who was waived by the Rockets last year. Hartenstein is a low risk high reward player who dominated in the G-League before winning Finals MVP there. The Nuggets also signed former Georgetown forward Greg Whittington to a two-way deal. A very mediocre signing, Whittington played well overseas and has good size for the position but he probably won’t see many minutes for Denver. Although there is some hope for him as the last two-way forward the Nuggets signed who was playing overseas turned out to be Torey Craig, so Whittington could end up being something.

As for trades, the Nuggets have yet to do anything. The most intriguing targets for Denver would have been Jrue Holiday, Victor Oladipo and Bradley Beal. Holiday went to the Bucks and he would have been the best option as his defense, scoring and ball handling would have been great alongside Murray. Beal is still technically available but it looks less and less likely each day. They could still end up putting together a trade package for him but it’s hard to say if they will at this point. The Oladipo trade is looking less and less likely as well and would be the worst of the three options. Unless they think Harris is back to his ‘17-’18 form, they need a new two guard.

One potential trade they could make in this situation would be trading Gary Harris and maybe a pick swap for Eric Bledsoe (although they would have to wait till December 11th due to the recently traded rule). While Bledsoe has had struggles in the playoffs, the Nuggets wouldn’t have to rely on his scoring as he would be a third or fourth option. As for the Pelicans, they have a surplus of lead guards and a Lonzo Harris backcourt would be hard to score on. A change of scenery may be what Harris needs to get back to form.

As for that possible lineup they could run it like this:

PG-Bledsoe SG-Murray SF-Porter Jr. PF-Milsap C-Jokic

With this lineup Bledsoe slots in the lead guard role and Murray plays the two. Murray is a great passer but moving him to the two lets him focus on scoring and this gives Bledsoe a small role in the offense. He would act as a secondary distributor and would be out there primarily for his defense, an area where the Nuggets have had some struggles. And his offensive issues will be mostly hidden as he won’t be taking big shots. As for Murray playing the two, it is his natural position as he played it in college and his rookie year. His defense shouldn’t be an issue and he has consistently put on weight and has good size to play the two. Plus Will Barton and Monte Morris would still be coming off the bench here.

They could also just run Morris at the one and Murray at the two if they didn’t want to make a trade. Morris is a great passer and a good enough shooter to take on a much bigger role in the offense. Morris has started a handful of games in his career so far and he hasn’t disappointed, not to mention that he and Murray have played together at times and they play off each other well. This lineup relies less on Harris’ offense being back and makes the two guard a much better passer. However moving Harris to the bench loses some defense in the starting line up but certainly improves the offense. The only problem here is they would be depending on Campazzo being a good playmaker off the bench and some of the rookies playing meaningful minutes.

Assuming they don’t make any trades they are most likely going to end up running something like this:

PG-Murray SG-Harris SF-Porter Jr. PF-Milsap C-Jokic

Not a bad lineup but it is a bit underwhelming based on what was expected in the off season. The success of this lineup hinges on the two through four spots. Harris needs to see a return to form and Milsap needs to average about 14 and 6 while playing good defense. The most important part here is MPJ. He needs to be consistent on the offensive end and step up his defensive game as it was really bad last year. Barton would act as the sixth man with this lineup, an area he thrived in past years.

The Nuggets need to be active in the trade market if they want to have any chance next year. The Clippers, Lakers, Suns and everyone else in the west has reloaded and improved this off-season while the Nuggets arguably have gotten worse. A lot of their success next year depends on the jump that MPJ takes, without a major jump from him, they’re in serious trouble. Teams can’t just tread water in the league, if they do, they’re drowning. If Denver fails to improve they’re bound to end up another perennial playoff team who never has a real shot to win it all.